Over the months from Oct to
Dec 2013, we analysed a number of companies listed on Bursa Malaysia. Among them were a big capitalization company in Tenaga Nasional Bhd, two hugely undervalued, conservative, net cash and prudently-managed property development companies, namely Daiman Development Bhd and Matrix Concept Holdings, and China Stationery Ltd, a mainland Chinese company whose operations have been the subject of much suspicion.
Now that six months
have passed, let us review how these companies have performed.
Company Name
|
Analysis and Date
|
Share Price (RM)
then
|
Share Price (RM) as
at 15 May 2014
|
% Change
|
Tenaga Nasional
Berhad
|
BUY (9 Dec 2013)
|
10.78
|
11.98
|
11.13
|
China Stationery Ltd
|
SELL (4 Oct 2013)
|
0.23
|
0.12
|
(46.67)
|
Daiman Development
Berhad
|
BUY (22 Nov 2013)
|
2.99
|
3.55
|
18.85
|
Matrix Concept
Holdings Berhad
|
BUY (10 Oct 2013)
|
2.75
|
4.10
|
49.15
|
The stocks we were positive
on have performed well. Even a large company like Tenaga has gone up by 11% in
5 months.
Within only six months,
Daiman Development Bhd is up 19% and Matrix Concept by a whopping 49%.
In contrast, China
Stationery Ltd’s stock price has all but collapsed. It now trades at 12 sen
from 23 sen just seven months ago.
We hate to say “we
told you so”, but really, the signs were staring at our faces. To those of
you who are still hanging on, hoping against hope, sometimes you must learn to
let go. Cut your losses and move on, as there are always opportunities
elsewhere.
This update is also to
indicate a change in our view on Tenaga. The good news have all been factored
into the stock price. Almost certainly, bad news will now dominate this
company. Its fuel costs are higher as its coal-fired plants were hit by
outages.
Early retirement of older plants and bringing forward new plants, with greater reliance on more expensive gas fuel, will raise its production costs. Tenaga is likely to see its earnings peaking in 2014. It is time to say goodbye to this stock.
Early retirement of older plants and bringing forward new plants, with greater reliance on more expensive gas fuel, will raise its production costs. Tenaga is likely to see its earnings peaking in 2014. It is time to say goodbye to this stock.
Hi Mr.Tong,
ReplyDeleteI am puzzle why you have called a buy on these property stocks even though you are bearish on the sector??
Good new looking page ..
ReplyDeleteCSL is a good sell call as after that their factory on fire and now could be heading for delisting soon if they can produce their audited accounts.
Those developer who have bought their land cheap years ago , they would have nothing to worry about ..
Property these days is a bubble ..
Even a beginner can make a 50% gain in their investment within 6 months. But, i'm sure that Datuk Tong is no beginner in investing, and will continue to outperform the KLCI even over the very long term.
ReplyDeletePlease continue with your investment recommendation, thanks.